Ampere: We are at 75% Peak TV and that is where we are likely staying
Guy Bisson, executive director of Ampere Analysis, and Cyrine Amor, research manager at the company presented the latest international TV and streaming trends during the first dayof the Series Mania Forum in Lille.
“Peak TV is over and just to put some numbers on that theaverage in terms of volume against the peak in 2022 is 25% down. So I'm calling that 75% peak TV. That is where we are. That is where we are likely staying” – this is how Bisson opened his presentation.
“Peak TV is over and just to put some numbers on that theaverage in terms of volume against the peak in 2022 is 25% down. So I'm calling that 75% peak TV. That is where we are. That is where we are likely staying” – this is how Bisson opened his presentation.
There was some good news, though. “Global first-run scripted series orders change versus a year earlier have leveled out.The good news is that stability is predictable and that is good for business. So while the industry is down, it is now at a new steady state for two years running of that 75% of peak TV.”
“In terms of what isn't getting made or more specifically what has been getting cancelled, what we're seeing is that some of those more expensive genres like sci-fi and fantasy in particular are getting cancelled more often. Now the other slightly unusual one is children's content and children's content is interesting because streamers in particular have moved away from kids content as an original production sector, switching to a licensing model instead. So they're making a lot less kids content they're licensing it instead and cancellation rates are slightly elevated. But in terms of what's coming back genre wise it's almost the flipside. So some of those expensive genres and the kids' content are getting cancelled more and what’s getting commissioned more is a couple of genres. One is comedy and that's an interesting one because that really came off the board. I used to describe comedy as one of the three battering rams of the streaming original production market fell out of favour for a bit has come back in earnest maybe because we all need a laugh right now with what is going on inthe world”. Bisson also highlighted the importance of the crime genre. “A third of all scripted commissions in Europe, and that includes first-run and renewal, is crime content. If you delve into the streamers, the big six global streamers’(Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Max and Paramount+) first-run content, almost half of their European original commissions are crime. Crime is big, it works very well for the streamers as they become more and more like broadcasters, they carry advertising, they need their audience to come back again and again. We have fallen in love again with the crime procedural, and itis showing up in the commissioning data.”
“In terms of where the business is, who is commissioning content over the last year or so it's a tale of two halves again so Europe's quite interesting, obviously we've got a very strong public service broadcaster market and it's very important for the production landscape. First thing to note almost half of first run scripted commissions come from that PSB sector in Europe so it's a really nice stable base the bar of gold on the mantelpiece that you turn to in times of hardship perhaps.”
The streamers and the commercial FTA’s are “back in business; they’re coming back up. We’re nowhere near the volumes that we were, but they’re going into recovery. So,there is some positive news in that otherwise wild roller coaster”.
”The other thing that we're seeing and again it speaks to where we are in the market is that streamers are focussing a little more than they were on renewals and a little less than they were on first run. Now of course the reasons for that are obvious - firstly we're in a maturing market so there's more content going into renewal cycles but the second factor that's important is somewhat some degree of risk aversion and that's partly because the market has been so difficult but also of course because they are now dependent on advertising for their future growth so these two trends likely to be ongoing and we're seeing it not just in Europe but across all regions.”
Commissioning strategies at the top six streaming platforms align with broader industry trends, showing a decline in sci-fi, fantasy, andchildren’s programming. However, crime and comedy remain areas of focus.“The shift toward international production continues to be a major trend,” Bisson noted. “For those outside the U.S., this is a significant development. Netflix crossed the threshold of producing a majority of its original content outside the U.S. about four years ago, but now, across all six major streamers, international productions dominate even more. Currently, onlyabout a third of their first-run scripted originals are commissioned in the U.S. While the market remains challenging, this trend presents opportunities for Europe and the global industry at large.”
Amor provided further insights into ongoing production patterns, highlighting the rising influence of Asian markets on scripted series, while the market share of U.S. and global subscription-based platforms has dipped. The top ten commissioning markets from 2022 to 2024 have remained stable. “We see several Asia-Pacific territories, particularly Japan, playing an increasingly prominent role, largely due to the surge in anime production. Additionally, the U.S. market—excluding global streaming services—has seen its share of scripted series decline, with a two-percentage-point drop. Meanwhile, certain European markets, notably the U.K. and France, have seen slight increases, which suggests a growing window of opportunity in the region.” Global streamers, she added, are increasingly working within-house teams or large European production groups. “Key European production-distribution companies are becoming more involved in securing commissions from global streamers, which aligns with the ongoing industry consolidation and recent acquisitions,” Amor explained.
“At the same time,streamers are also leaning more on their parent companies’ subsidiaries for production and co-production.” She also pointed out that existing intellectual property (IP) remains a major factor in content development. “In times of market uncertainty, we typically see a rise in new commissions based on preexisting IP, as this helps mitigate risk by leveraging familiar properties. This pattern is particularly evident in Western Europe, where the share of IP-based series has increased by four percentage points, a trend expected to continue. Interestingly, in North America, this share has slightly declined—though it remains at a high level, gradually moving closer to the European rate.”Western European public broadcasters, facing tighter budgets, are relying more on IP, particularly literary adaptations. Their share of first-run scripted series based on existing IP has grown from 21% in 2021 to 26% in 2024. “On a global scale, remakes and reboots haven’t increased overall,” Amor said. “However, when looking at who is driving them,we see commercial and public broadcasters taking the lead—often reviving past projects they were previously involved with as a way to hedge their bets in a difficult market.”Examining genre and thematic developments, Western European public broadcasters are investing more in new drama and children’s programming, while comedy enjoys a higher renewal rate. Romance as a genre is declining,with the exception of romantic comedies and anime romance. Other emerging thematic trends reflect shifts in societal and political landscapes, as well as personal struggles. “Content related to armed conflict, such as war andmilitary themes, has increased by about 22%,” she noted. “Faith- and religion-based programming has surged by 500% albeit from a low starting point. Social media’s influence, which peaked during the pandemic before tapering off, has seen a resurgence in 2024, with commissioners increasingly tapping into influencer-driven narratives. Lastly, personal crises—including themes of mental health, anxiety, and depression—are also on the rise. This suggests that, thematically, audiences are seeking stories that help them navigate evolving social and political realities on an individual level.”
“In terms of what isn't getting made or more specifically what has been getting cancelled, what we're seeing is that some of those more expensive genres like sci-fi and fantasy in particular are getting cancelled more often. Now the other slightly unusual one is children's content and children's content is interesting because streamers in particular have moved away from kids content as an original production sector, switching to a licensing model instead. So they're making a lot less kids content they're licensing it instead and cancellation rates are slightly elevated. But in terms of what's coming back genre wise it's almost the flipside. So some of those expensive genres and the kids' content are getting cancelled more and what’s getting commissioned more is a couple of genres. One is comedy and that's an interesting one because that really came off the board. I used to describe comedy as one of the three battering rams of the streaming original production market fell out of favour for a bit has come back in earnest maybe because we all need a laugh right now with what is going on inthe world”. Bisson also highlighted the importance of the crime genre. “A third of all scripted commissions in Europe, and that includes first-run and renewal, is crime content. If you delve into the streamers, the big six global streamers’(Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Max and Paramount+) first-run content, almost half of their European original commissions are crime. Crime is big, it works very well for the streamers as they become more and more like broadcasters, they carry advertising, they need their audience to come back again and again. We have fallen in love again with the crime procedural, and itis showing up in the commissioning data.”
“In terms of where the business is, who is commissioning content over the last year or so it's a tale of two halves again so Europe's quite interesting, obviously we've got a very strong public service broadcaster market and it's very important for the production landscape. First thing to note almost half of first run scripted commissions come from that PSB sector in Europe so it's a really nice stable base the bar of gold on the mantelpiece that you turn to in times of hardship perhaps.”
The streamers and the commercial FTA’s are “back in business; they’re coming back up. We’re nowhere near the volumes that we were, but they’re going into recovery. So,there is some positive news in that otherwise wild roller coaster”.
”The other thing that we're seeing and again it speaks to where we are in the market is that streamers are focussing a little more than they were on renewals and a little less than they were on first run. Now of course the reasons for that are obvious - firstly we're in a maturing market so there's more content going into renewal cycles but the second factor that's important is somewhat some degree of risk aversion and that's partly because the market has been so difficult but also of course because they are now dependent on advertising for their future growth so these two trends likely to be ongoing and we're seeing it not just in Europe but across all regions.”
Commissioning strategies at the top six streaming platforms align with broader industry trends, showing a decline in sci-fi, fantasy, andchildren’s programming. However, crime and comedy remain areas of focus.“The shift toward international production continues to be a major trend,” Bisson noted. “For those outside the U.S., this is a significant development. Netflix crossed the threshold of producing a majority of its original content outside the U.S. about four years ago, but now, across all six major streamers, international productions dominate even more. Currently, onlyabout a third of their first-run scripted originals are commissioned in the U.S. While the market remains challenging, this trend presents opportunities for Europe and the global industry at large.”
Amor provided further insights into ongoing production patterns, highlighting the rising influence of Asian markets on scripted series, while the market share of U.S. and global subscription-based platforms has dipped. The top ten commissioning markets from 2022 to 2024 have remained stable. “We see several Asia-Pacific territories, particularly Japan, playing an increasingly prominent role, largely due to the surge in anime production. Additionally, the U.S. market—excluding global streaming services—has seen its share of scripted series decline, with a two-percentage-point drop. Meanwhile, certain European markets, notably the U.K. and France, have seen slight increases, which suggests a growing window of opportunity in the region.” Global streamers, she added, are increasingly working within-house teams or large European production groups. “Key European production-distribution companies are becoming more involved in securing commissions from global streamers, which aligns with the ongoing industry consolidation and recent acquisitions,” Amor explained.
“At the same time,streamers are also leaning more on their parent companies’ subsidiaries for production and co-production.” She also pointed out that existing intellectual property (IP) remains a major factor in content development. “In times of market uncertainty, we typically see a rise in new commissions based on preexisting IP, as this helps mitigate risk by leveraging familiar properties. This pattern is particularly evident in Western Europe, where the share of IP-based series has increased by four percentage points, a trend expected to continue. Interestingly, in North America, this share has slightly declined—though it remains at a high level, gradually moving closer to the European rate.”Western European public broadcasters, facing tighter budgets, are relying more on IP, particularly literary adaptations. Their share of first-run scripted series based on existing IP has grown from 21% in 2021 to 26% in 2024. “On a global scale, remakes and reboots haven’t increased overall,” Amor said. “However, when looking at who is driving them,we see commercial and public broadcasters taking the lead—often reviving past projects they were previously involved with as a way to hedge their bets in a difficult market.”Examining genre and thematic developments, Western European public broadcasters are investing more in new drama and children’s programming, while comedy enjoys a higher renewal rate. Romance as a genre is declining,with the exception of romantic comedies and anime romance. Other emerging thematic trends reflect shifts in societal and political landscapes, as well as personal struggles. “Content related to armed conflict, such as war andmilitary themes, has increased by about 22%,” she noted. “Faith- and religion-based programming has surged by 500% albeit from a low starting point. Social media’s influence, which peaked during the pandemic before tapering off, has seen a resurgence in 2024, with commissioners increasingly tapping into influencer-driven narratives. Lastly, personal crises—including themes of mental health, anxiety, and depression—are also on the rise. This suggests that, thematically, audiences are seeking stories that help them navigate evolving social and political realities on an individual level.”
